Dust emission response to precipitation and temperature anomalies under different climatic conditions

The dust-drought nexus has received more attention in recent years, particularly in light of global warming. This study aims to better understand the interacting role of temperature and precipitation climatology on global dust emission. Simulated global arid regions' dust emissions from 11 CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) (65 years from 1950 to 2014) and MERRA2 reanalysis (41 years from 1980 to 2020) are analyzed. We calculate dust emission sensitivity to precipitation and temperature using multiple linear regression with near-surface (10 m) wind speed, precipitation, and 2 m air temperature as predictors. The results show that simulated dust emission from most models is significantly correlated with precipitation and temperature over large arid dust source regions. All ESMs show both positive and negative dust emission sensitivity to precipitation (β_P) and temperature (β_T). The climatological mean state affects the strength of the relationships. The precipitation sensitivity is larger over the cold regions while the temperature sensitivity is larger in wet regions. The precipitation sensitivity symmetrically increases with latitude due to the variability of temperature with latitude. Future changes to mean temperature and precipitation have competing effects on dust emission and are likely to alter the hemispheric balance of atmospheric dust.