TY - JOUR
T1 - Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches
AU - Sinervo, Barry
AU - Méndez-de-la-Cruz, Fausto
AU - Miles, Donald B.
AU - Heulin, Benoit
AU - Bastiaans, Elizabeth
AU - Cruz, Maricela Villagrán Santa
AU - Lara-Resendiz, Rafael
AU - Martínez-Méndez, Norberto
AU - Calderón-Espinosa, Martha Lucía
AU - Meza-Lázaro, Rubi Nelsi
AU - Gadsden, Héctor
AU - Avila, Luciano Javier
AU - Morando, Mariana
AU - De La Riva, Ignacio J.
AU - Sepúlveda, Pedro Victoriano
AU - Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte
AU - Ibargüengoytía, Nora
AU - Puntriano, César Aguilar
AU - Massot, Manuel
AU - Lepetz, Virginie
AU - Oksanen, Tuula A.
AU - Chappie, David G.
AU - Bauer, Aaron M.
AU - Branch, William R.
AU - Clobert, Jean
AU - Sites, Jack W.
PY - 2010/5/14
Y1 - 2010/5/14
N2 - It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.
AB - It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/77952336226
U2 - 10.1126/science.1184695
DO - 10.1126/science.1184695
M3 - Article
C2 - 20466932
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 328
SP - 894
EP - 899
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 5980
ER -