Explaining the 1914 war in Europe: An analytic narrative

This essay constructs a theoretically rigorous explanation of the 1914 European war that involved Austria-Hungary, Germany, Russia, and France. It also serves to confirm Trachtenberg's contention that 'one does not have to take a particularly dark view of German intentions' to explain the onset of war in 1914 and 'question the ''inadvertent war'' theory'. A number of related questions about the Great War are also addressed within the context of a generic game-theoretic escalation model with incomplete information. The analysis suggests that general war broke out in Europe in 1914 because both Austria-Hungary and Germany believed that, when push came to shove, Russia would stand aside if Austria moved aggressively against Serbia. There is a sense in which the war can be said to be unintended but there is no sense in which it should be understood as accidental.