Great power politics and the dynamics of capability: the prevention of near-crisis escalation

How do changes in military capability among the great powers affect conflict processes? The authors argue that this relationship should be evaluated at a lower point in the conflict escalation cycle by focusing on near-crisis events. They develop propositions from the dynamics of capability literature and quantitatively evaluate what factors contribute to the (de-)escalation of near crises, using a dataset of involving at least one great power between 1995 and 2015. The patterns of near-crisis initiation and management confirm some of the expectations from both power transition theory and power cycle theory. They evaluate three near-crisis cases to stimulate future research on the connection between dynamics of capability and (de-)escalation at the near-crisis stage.