Integrating Copernicus land cover data into the i-Tree Cool Air model to evaluate and map urban heat mitigation by tree cover

Cities host more than half of the world’s population and due to global warming and land use change their vulnerability to deadly heat waves has increased. A healthy vegetated landscape can abate heat wave severity and diminish the related urban heat island through the process of evapotranspiration. This research aimed to develop a methodology for cities to use publicly available Copernicus land cover maps within the i-Tree Cool Air water and energy balance model to map air temperature and humidity. The manuscript presents proof of concept using Naples, Italy with its Mediterranean climate characterized by limited soil water for cooling via evapotranspiration. The approach achieved strong correlations between predicted and observed air temperatures across the city (r ≥ 0.89). During the warm season of 2020, forested land cover was 5°C cooler than land cover dominated by impervious cover. Simulated land cover change, limited to a 10% increase or decrease in tree cover, generated an inverse change of 0.2°C in maximum hourly air temperature, with more trees obtaining cooler air. Soil water limited the cooling, with the generally wetter spring season enabling greater cooling of air temperatures, and summer droughts without irrigation had constrained cooling. Sustainable urban design will likely require an increase in plant cover along with a reduction of impervious surfaces that absorb and reradiate heat in order to improve community resilience to heat waves.