Natural history and determinants of dysglycemia in Canadian children with parental obesity from ages 8–10 to 15–17 years: The QUALITY cohort

In children, the mechanisms implicated in deterioration of glucose homeostasis versus reversion to normal glucose tolerance (NGT) remain uncertain. We aimed to describe the natural history of dysglycemia from childhood to late adolescence and to identify its early determinants. We used baseline (8–10 years, n = 630), 1st follow-up (10–12 years, n = 564) and 2nd follow-up (15–17 years, n = 377) data from the QUALITY cohort of White Canadian children with parental obesity. Children underwent a 2-h oral glucose tolerance test at each cycle with plasma glucose and insulin measured at 0/30/60/90/120 min. American Diabetes Association criteria defined dysglycemia (impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance or type 2 diabetes). Longitudinal patterns of insulin sensitivity and beta-cell function were estimated using generalized additive mixed models. Model averaging identified biological, sociodemographic and lifestyle-related determinants of dysglycemia. Of the children NGT at baseline, 66 (21%) developed dysglycemia without reverting to NGT. Among children with dysglycemia at baseline, 24 (73%) reverted to NGT. In children with dysglycemia at 1st follow-up, 18 (53%) later reverted to NGT. Among biological, sociodemographic and lifestyle determinants at 8–10 years, only fasting and 2-h glucose were associated with developing dysglycemia (odds ratio [95% CI] per 1 mmol/L increase: 4.50 [1.06; 19.02] and 1.74 [1.11; 2.73], respectively). Beta-cell function decreased by 40% in children with overweight or obesity. In conclusion, up to 75% of children with dysglycemia reverted to NGT during puberty. Children with higher fasting and 2-h glucose were at higher risk for progression to dysglycemia, while no demographic/lifestyle determinants were identified.