Neighborhood crime and perception of safety as predictors of victimization and offending among youth: A call for macro-level prevention and intervention models

This paper is one of two in a series that reports detailed findings from a larger study that simultaneously explored individual, family and neighborhood level predictors of victimization and offending among youth. The current analysis aims to identify which neighborhood level factors have better predictive power with regard to type of victimization (direct and vicarious measures) and total offending overtime (Wave 1 and Wave 2). Methods: Path analysis was conducted using data from a multi-wave, panel study (N = 625) of youth ages 16-19 at Wave 1. A best fitting model was determined showing causal pathways from neighborhood level factors including crime and perception of safety, to direct and vicarious victimization through exposure to violence, and subsequent offending. Findings: Neighborhood crime significantly predicted property victimization. Neighborhood crime and perception of safety significantly predicted vicarious victimization by exposure to violence in the neighborhood. Neighborhood crime and perception of safety were significantly associated with Wave 1 offending. Findings highlight the need for professionals who work with youth to be cognizant of how their environments influence their lives. Prevention and intervention models seeking to create sustainable change among youth should consider mezzo and macro level components that build and strengthen neighborhood capacity through community partnerships.