Paratransit demand of disabled people

This paper estimates the demand for transportation systems that are used primarily by disabled individuals. These systems are known as paratransit systems and have experienced large increases in number and average size over the past 15 years. We first use a national database and standard time series techniques to model aggregate demand. We then use a unique data set of administrative records from a paratransit system in central Virginia to estimate standard and nonstandard count models of individual demand. We conclude that most of the demand growth is from new passengers, but that predicting the growth of new passengers is very difficult. Our results also highlight the importance of incorporating autocorrelation and possible sample attrition into standard count models.