PERCENTAGE OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE FORECASTING EXPERIMENT AT ALBANY, NEW YORK.

THE RESULTS OF TWO REGRESSION EXPERIMENTS TO PREDICT PERCENTAGE OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (POPS) ONE DAY IN ADVANCE AT ALBANY, NEW YORK ARE DESCRIBED. FOR THE ONE EXPERIMENT, PREDICTORS ARE DERIVED FROM ALBANY RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS, WHILE THEOTHER EXPERIMENT USES PREDICTORS OBTAINED FROM THE DAILY 1200 GMT RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL LIMITED AREA FINE MESH (LFM) MODEL AT THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTER (NMC). INSPECTIONOF PARTICULARLY ERRONEOUS INDIVIDUAL POPS FORECASTS SUGGESTS THAT ERRORS ARISE FROM REGRESSION EQUATION INADEQUACIES AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FROM POOR NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS. OVERFORECASTING CASES ARE USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT, THIN LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY ATMOSPHERE, WHILE MOST UNDERFORECASTING CASES RESULT FROM THE INABILITY OF THE WINTER SEASON EQUATIONS TO RECOGNIZE WARM, DRY SITUATIONS IN LATE AUTUMN AND EARLY WINTER.