Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Tomas Roslin; Laura Antão; Maria Hällfors; Evgeniy Meyke; Coong Lo; Gleb Tikhonov; Maria del Mar Delgado; Eliezer Gurarie; Marina Abadonova; Ozodbek Abduraimov; Olga Adrianova; Tatiana Akimova; Muzhigit Akkiev; Aleksandr Ananin; Elena Andreeva; Natalia Andriychuk; Maxim Antipin; Konstantin Arzamascev; Svetlana Babina; Miroslav Babushkin; Oleg Bakin; Anna Barabancova; Inna Basilskaja; Nina Belova; Natalia Belyaeva; Tatjana Bespalova; Evgeniya Bisikalova; Anatoly Bobretsov; Vladimir Bobrov; Vadim Bobrovskyi; Elena Bochkareva; Gennady Bogdanov; Vladimir Bolshakov; Svetlana Bondarchuk; Evgeniya Bukharova; Alena Butunina; Yuri Buyvolov; Anna Buyvolova; Yuri Bykov; Elena Chakhireva; Olga Chashchina; Nadezhda Cherenkova; Sergej Chistjakov; Svetlana Chuhontseva; Evgeniy A. Davydov; Viktor Demchenko; Elena Diadicheva; Aleksandr Dobrolyubov; Ludmila Dostoyevskaya; Svetlana Drovnina; Zoya Drozdova; Akynaly Dubanaev; Yuriy Dubrovsky; Sergey Elsukov; Lidia Epova; Olga Ermakova; Olga S. Ermakova; Elena Ershkova; Aleksandra Esengeldenova; Oleg Evstigneev; Irina Fedchenko; Violetta Fedotova; Tatiana Filatova; Sergey Gashev; Anatoliy Gavrilov; Irina Gaydysh; Dmitrij Golovcov; Nadezhda Goncharova; Elena Gorbunova; Tatyana Gordeeva; Vitaly Grishchenko; Ludmila Gromyko; Vladimir Hohryakov; Alexander Hritankov; Elena Ignatenko; Svetlana Igosheva; Uliya Ivanova; Natalya Ivanova; Yury Kalinkin; Evgeniya Kaygorodova; Fedor Kazansky; Darya Kiseleva; Anastasia Knorre; Leonid Kolpashikov; Evgenii Korobov; Helen Korolyova; Natalia Korotkikh; Gennadiy Kosenkov; Sergey Kossenko; Elvira Kotlugalyamova; Evgeny Kozlovsky; Vladimir Kozsheechkin; Alla Kozurak; Irina Kozyr; Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva; Sergey Kruglikov; Olga Kuberskaya; Aleksey Kudryavtsev; Elena Kulebyakina; Yuliia Kulsha; Margarita Kupriyanova; Murad Kurbanbagamaev; Anatoliy Kutenkov; Nadezhda Kutenkova; Nadezhda Kuyantseva; Andrey Kuznetsov; Evgeniy Larin; Pavel Lebedev; Kirill Litvinov; Natalia Luzhkova; Azizbek Mahmudov; Lidiya Makovkina; Viktor Mamontov; Svetlana Mayorova; Irina Megalinskaja; Artur Meydus; Aleksandr Minin; Oleg Mitrofanov; Mykhailo Motruk; Aleksandr Myslenkov; Nina Nasonova; Natalia Nemtseva; Irina Nesterova; Tamara Nezdoliy; Tatyana Niroda; Tatiana Novikova; Darya Panicheva; Alexey Pavlov; Klara Pavlova; Sergei Podolski; Natalja Polikarpova; Tatiana Polyanskaya; Igor Pospelov; Elena Pospelova; Ilya Prokhorov; Irina Prokosheva; Lyudmila Puchnina; Ivan Putrashyk; Julia Raiskaya; Yuri Rozhkov; Olga Rozhkova; Marina Rudenko; Irina Rybnikova; Svetlana Rykova; Miroslava Sahnevich; Alexander Samoylov; Valeri Sanko; Inna Sapelnikova; Sergei Sazonov; Zoya Selyunina; Ksenia Shalaeva; Maksim Shashkov; Anatoliy Shcherbakov; Vasyl Shevchyk; Sergej Shubin; Elena Shujskaja; Rustam Sibgatullin; Natalia Sikkila; Elena Sitnikova; Andrei Sivkov; Nataliya Skok; Svetlana Skorokhodova; Elena Smirnova; Galina Sokolova; Vladimir Sopin; Yurii Spasovski; Sergei Stepanov; Vitalіy Stratiy; Violetta Strekalovskaya; Alexander Sukhov; Guzalya Suleymanova; Lilija Sultangareeva; Viktorija Teleganova; Viktor Teplov; Valentina Teplova; Tatiana Tertitsa; Vladislav Timoshkin; Dmitry Tirski; Andrej Tolmachev; Aleksey Tomilin; Ludmila Tselishcheva; Mirabdulla Turgunov; Yurij Tyukh; Polina Van; Vladimir Van; Aleksander Vasin; Aleksandra Vasina; Anatoliy Vekliuk; Lidia Vetchinnikova; Vladislav Vinogradov; Nikolay Volodchenkov; Inna Voloshina; Tura Xoliqov; Eugenia Yablonovska-Grishchenko; Vladimir Yakovlev; Marina Yakovleva; Oksana Yantser; Yurij Yarema; Andrey Zahvatov; Valery Zakharov; Nicolay Zelenetskiy; Anatolii Zheltukhin; Tatyana Zubina; Juri Kurhinen; Otso Ovaskainen

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7

Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Tomas Roslin
, Laura Antão
, Maria Hällfors
, Evgeniy Meyke
, Coong Lo
, Gleb Tikhonov
, Maria del Mar Delgado
, Eliezer Gurarie
, Marina Abadonova
, Ozodbek Abduraimov
, Olga Adrianova
, Tatiana Akimova
, Muzhigit Akkiev
, Aleksandr Ananin
, Elena Andreeva
, Natalia Andriychuk
, Maxim Antipin
, Konstantin Arzamascev
, Svetlana Babina
, Miroslav Babushkin

Oleg Bakin, Anna Barabancova, Inna Basilskaja, Nina Belova, Natalia Belyaeva, Tatjana Bespalova, Evgeniya Bisikalova, Anatoly Bobretsov, Vladimir Bobrov, Vadim Bobrovskyi, Elena Bochkareva, Gennady Bogdanov, Vladimir Bolshakov, Svetlana Bondarchuk, Evgeniya Bukharova, Alena Butunina, Yuri Buyvolov, Anna Buyvolova, Yuri Bykov, Elena Chakhireva, Olga Chashchina, Nadezhda Cherenkova, Sergej Chistjakov, Svetlana Chuhontseva, Evgeniy A. Davydov, Viktor Demchenko, Elena Diadicheva, Aleksandr Dobrolyubov, Ludmila Dostoyevskaya, Svetlana Drovnina, Zoya Drozdova, Akynaly Dubanaev, Yuriy Dubrovsky, Sergey Elsukov, Lidia Epova, Olga Ermakova, Olga S. Ermakova, Elena Ershkova, Aleksandra Esengeldenova, Oleg Evstigneev, Irina Fedchenko, Violetta Fedotova, Tatiana Filatova, Sergey Gashev, Anatoliy Gavrilov, Irina Gaydysh, Dmitrij Golovcov, Nadezhda Goncharova, Elena Gorbunova, Tatyana Gordeeva, Vitaly Grishchenko, Ludmila Gromyko, Vladimir Hohryakov, Alexander Hritankov, Elena Ignatenko, Svetlana Igosheva, Uliya Ivanova, Natalya Ivanova, Yury Kalinkin, Evgeniya Kaygorodova, Fedor Kazansky, Darya Kiseleva, Anastasia Knorre, Leonid Kolpashikov, Evgenii Korobov, Helen Korolyova, Natalia Korotkikh, Gennadiy Kosenkov, Sergey Kossenko, Elvira Kotlugalyamova, Evgeny Kozlovsky, Vladimir Kozsheechkin, Alla Kozurak, Irina Kozyr, Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva, Sergey Kruglikov, Olga Kuberskaya, Aleksey Kudryavtsev, Elena Kulebyakina, Yuliia Kulsha, Margarita Kupriyanova, Murad Kurbanbagamaev, Anatoliy Kutenkov, Nadezhda Kutenkova, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Evgeniy Larin, Pavel Lebedev, Kirill Litvinov, Natalia Luzhkova, Azizbek Mahmudov, Lidiya Makovkina, Viktor Mamontov, Svetlana Mayorova, Irina Megalinskaja, Artur Meydus, Aleksandr Minin, Oleg Mitrofanov, Mykhailo Motruk, Aleksandr Myslenkov, Nina Nasonova, Natalia Nemtseva, Irina Nesterova, Tamara Nezdoliy, Tatyana Niroda, Tatiana Novikova, Darya Panicheva, Alexey Pavlov, Klara Pavlova, Sergei Podolski, Natalja Polikarpova, Tatiana Polyanskaya, Igor Pospelov, Elena Pospelova, Ilya Prokhorov, Irina Prokosheva, Lyudmila Puchnina, Ivan Putrashyk, Julia Raiskaya, Yuri Rozhkov, Olga Rozhkova, Marina Rudenko, Irina Rybnikova, Svetlana Rykova, Miroslava Sahnevich, Alexander Samoylov, Valeri Sanko, Inna Sapelnikova, Sergei Sazonov, Zoya Selyunina, Ksenia Shalaeva, Maksim Shashkov, Anatoliy Shcherbakov, Vasyl Shevchyk, Sergej Shubin, Elena Shujskaja, Rustam Sibgatullin, Natalia Sikkila, Elena Sitnikova, Andrei Sivkov, Nataliya Skok, Svetlana Skorokhodova, Elena Smirnova, Galina Sokolova, Vladimir Sopin, Yurii Spasovski, Sergei Stepanov, Vitalіy Stratiy, Violetta Strekalovskaya, Alexander Sukhov, Guzalya Suleymanova, Lilija Sultangareeva, Viktorija Teleganova, Viktor Teplov, Valentina Teplova, Tatiana Tertitsa, Vladislav Timoshkin, Dmitry Tirski, Andrej Tolmachev, Aleksey Tomilin, Ludmila Tselishcheva, Mirabdulla Turgunov, Yurij Tyukh, Polina Van, Vladimir Van, Aleksander Vasin, Aleksandra Vasina, Anatoliy Vekliuk, Lidia Vetchinnikova, Vladislav Vinogradov, Nikolay Volodchenkov, Inna Voloshina, Tura Xoliqov, Eugenia Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Vladimir Yakovlev, Marina Yakovleva, Oksana Yantser, Yurij Yarema, Andrey Zahvatov, Valery Zakharov, Nicolay Zelenetskiy, Anatolii Zheltukhin, Tatyana Zubina, Juri Kurhinen, Otso Ovaskainen

Environmental Biology

College of Environmental Science & Forestry

Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
University of Helsinki
EarthCape OY
Aalto University
University of Oviedo
National Park Orlovskoe Polesie
Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Kostomuksha Nature Reserve
Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Kabardino-Balkarski Nature Reserve
FSE Zapovednoe Podlemorye
Institute of General and Experimental Biology of the Siberian Branch of the RAS
State Nature Reserve Stolby
Carpathian Biosphere Reserve
Nizhne-Svirsky State Nature Reserve
State Nature Reserve Prisursky
Pribajkalsky National Park)
Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve
Volzhsko-Kamsky National Nature Biosphere Rezerve
FGBU National Park Shushenskiy Bor
Voronezhsky Nature Biosphere Reserve
Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Visimsky Nature Biosphere Reserve
Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich
FSBI United Administration of the Kedrovaya Pad’ State Biosphere Nature Reserve and Leopard’s Land National Park
Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve
Russian Academy of Sciences
Komsomolskiy Department
Tigirek State Nature Reserve
Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals of the Siberian Branch of the RAS
State Nature Reserve Bolshaya Kokshaga
Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology
Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov
FSBI Prioksko-Terrasniy State Reserve
Lomonosov Moscow State University
National park Meshchera
South Urals Federal Research Center of Mineralogy and Geoecology of the Urals Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
FGBU National Park Kenozersky
FGBU GPZ Kologrivskij les im. M.G. Sinicina
Altai State University
Pryazovskyi National Nature Park
State Nature Reserve Privolzhskaya Lesostep
Sary-Chelek State Nature Reserve
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
FGBU State Nature Reserve Kuznetsk Alatau
Kerzhenskiy State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Republic of Mordovia
Ogarev Mordovia State University
Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve
Pinezhsky State Nature Reserve
The Central Chernozem State Biosphere Nature Reserve named after Professor V.V. Alyokhin
Tyumen State University
Reserves of Taimyr
Chatkalski National Park
National Park Ugra
Kaniv Nature Reserve
Smolenskoe Poozerje National Park
FSBI Zeya State Nature Reserve
Polistovsky State Nature Reserve
Ural State Pedagogical University
Kronotsky Federal Nature Biosphere Reserve
Zhiguli Nature Reserve
Siberian Federal University
Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve
National Park Bashkirija
State Nature Reserve Kurilsky
Vodlozersky National Park
State Nature Reserve Kivach
South Ural State University
Saint-Petersburg State Forestry University
Astrakhan Biosphere Reserve
FSBI United Administration of the Lazovsky State Reserve and national park Zov Tigra
State Nature Reserve Tungusskiy
Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University
Carpathian National Nature Park
State Environmental Institution National Park Braslav lakes
National Park Synevyr
Pasvik State Nature Reserve
Mari Chodra National Park
State Nature Reserve Vishersky
State Nature Reserve Olekminsky
Crimea Nature Reserve
Russian Academy of Sciences
Black Sea Biosphere Reserve
State Nature Reserve Nurgush
Caucasian State Biosphere Reserve of the Ministry of Natural Resources
National Nature Park Vyzhnytskiy
National Park Khvalynsky
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Information-Analytical Centre for Protected Areas
State Nature Reserve Malaya Sosva
Krasnoyarsk State Medical University
Surhanskiy State Nature Reserve
Mordovia State Nature Reserve
Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

86 Scopus citations

Abstract

Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	241-248
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	11
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7
State	Published - Mar 2021

Access to Document

10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7

Cite this

Roslin, T., Antão, L., Hällfors, M., Meyke, E., Lo, C., Tikhonov, G., Delgado, M. D. M., Gurarie, E., Abadonova, M., Abduraimov, O., Adrianova, O., Akimova, T., Akkiev, M., Ananin, A., Andreeva, E., Andriychuk, N., Antipin, M., Arzamascev, K., Babina, S., ... Ovaskainen, O. (2021). Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent. Nature Climate Change, 11(3), 241-248. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7

@article{4b273de30173418099fb241676ba34c2,

title = "Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent",

abstract = "Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.",

author = "Tomas Roslin and Laura Ant{\~a}o and Maria H{\"a}llfors and Evgeniy Meyke and Coong Lo and Gleb Tikhonov and Delgado, \{Maria del Mar\} and Eliezer Gurarie and Marina Abadonova and Ozodbek Abduraimov and Olga Adrianova and Tatiana Akimova and Muzhigit Akkiev and Aleksandr Ananin and Elena Andreeva and Natalia Andriychuk and Maxim Antipin and Konstantin Arzamascev and Svetlana Babina and Miroslav Babushkin and Oleg Bakin and Anna Barabancova and Inna Basilskaja and Nina Belova and Natalia Belyaeva and Tatjana Bespalova and Evgeniya Bisikalova and Anatoly Bobretsov and Vladimir Bobrov and Vadim Bobrovskyi and Elena Bochkareva and Gennady Bogdanov and Vladimir Bolshakov and Svetlana Bondarchuk and Evgeniya Bukharova and Alena Butunina and Yuri Buyvolov and Anna Buyvolova and Yuri Bykov and Elena Chakhireva and Olga Chashchina and Nadezhda Cherenkova and Sergej Chistjakov and Svetlana Chuhontseva and Davydov, \{Evgeniy A.\} and Viktor Demchenko and Elena Diadicheva and Aleksandr Dobrolyubov and Ludmila Dostoyevskaya and Svetlana Drovnina and Zoya Drozdova and Akynaly Dubanaev and Yuriy Dubrovsky and Sergey Elsukov and Lidia Epova and Olga Ermakova and Ermakova, \{Olga S.\} and Elena Ershkova and Aleksandra Esengeldenova and Oleg Evstigneev and Irina Fedchenko and Violetta Fedotova and Tatiana Filatova and Sergey Gashev and Anatoliy Gavrilov and Irina Gaydysh and Dmitrij Golovcov and Nadezhda Goncharova and Elena Gorbunova and Tatyana Gordeeva and Vitaly Grishchenko and Ludmila Gromyko and Vladimir Hohryakov and Alexander Hritankov and Elena Ignatenko and Svetlana Igosheva and Uliya Ivanova and Natalya Ivanova and Yury Kalinkin and Evgeniya Kaygorodova and Fedor Kazansky and Darya Kiseleva and Anastasia Knorre and Leonid Kolpashikov and Evgenii Korobov and Helen Korolyova and Natalia Korotkikh and Gennadiy Kosenkov and Sergey Kossenko and Elvira Kotlugalyamova and Evgeny Kozlovsky and Vladimir Kozsheechkin and Alla Kozurak and Irina Kozyr and Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva and Sergey Kruglikov and Olga Kuberskaya and Aleksey Kudryavtsev and Elena Kulebyakina and Yuliia Kulsha and Margarita Kupriyanova and Murad Kurbanbagamaev and Anatoliy Kutenkov and Nadezhda Kutenkova and Nadezhda Kuyantseva and Andrey Kuznetsov and Evgeniy Larin and Pavel Lebedev and Kirill Litvinov and Natalia Luzhkova and Azizbek Mahmudov and Lidiya Makovkina and Viktor Mamontov and Svetlana Mayorova and Irina Megalinskaja and Artur Meydus and Aleksandr Minin and Oleg Mitrofanov and Mykhailo Motruk and Aleksandr Myslenkov and Nina Nasonova and Natalia Nemtseva and Irina Nesterova and Tamara Nezdoliy and Tatyana Niroda and Tatiana Novikova and Darya Panicheva and Alexey Pavlov and Klara Pavlova and Sergei Podolski and Natalja Polikarpova and Tatiana Polyanskaya and Igor Pospelov and Elena Pospelova and Ilya Prokhorov and Irina Prokosheva and Lyudmila Puchnina and Ivan Putrashyk and Julia Raiskaya and Yuri Rozhkov and Olga Rozhkova and Marina Rudenko and Irina Rybnikova and Svetlana Rykova and Miroslava Sahnevich and Alexander Samoylov and Valeri Sanko and Inna Sapelnikova and Sergei Sazonov and Zoya Selyunina and Ksenia Shalaeva and Maksim Shashkov and Anatoliy Shcherbakov and Vasyl Shevchyk and Sergej Shubin and Elena Shujskaja and Rustam Sibgatullin and Natalia Sikkila and Elena Sitnikova and Andrei Sivkov and Nataliya Skok and Svetlana Skorokhodova and Elena Smirnova and Galina Sokolova and Vladimir Sopin and Yurii Spasovski and Sergei Stepanov and Vitalіy Stratiy and Violetta Strekalovskaya and Alexander Sukhov and Guzalya Suleymanova and Lilija Sultangareeva and Viktorija Teleganova and Viktor Teplov and Valentina Teplova and Tatiana Tertitsa and Vladislav Timoshkin and Dmitry Tirski and Andrej Tolmachev and Aleksey Tomilin and Ludmila Tselishcheva and Mirabdulla Turgunov and Yurij Tyukh and Polina Van and Vladimir Van and Aleksander Vasin and Aleksandra Vasina and Anatoliy Vekliuk and Lidia Vetchinnikova and Vladislav Vinogradov and Nikolay Volodchenkov and Inna Voloshina and Tura Xoliqov and Eugenia Yablonovska-Grishchenko and Vladimir Yakovlev and Marina Yakovleva and Oksana Yantser and Yurij Yarema and Andrey Zahvatov and Valery Zakharov and Nicolay Zelenetskiy and Anatolii Zheltukhin and Tatyana Zubina and Juri Kurhinen and Otso Ovaskainen",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2021",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7",

language = "English",

volume = "11",

pages = "241--248",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "3",

}

Roslin, T, Antão, L, Hällfors, M, Meyke, E, Lo, C, Tikhonov, G, Delgado, MDM, Gurarie, E, Abadonova, M, Abduraimov, O, Adrianova, O, Akimova, T, Akkiev, M, Ananin, A, Andreeva, E, Andriychuk, N, Antipin, M, Arzamascev, K, Babina, S, Babushkin, M, Bakin, O, Barabancova, A, Basilskaja, I, Belova, N, Belyaeva, N, Bespalova, T, Bisikalova, E, Bobretsov, A, Bobrov, V, Bobrovskyi, V, Bochkareva, E, Bogdanov, G, Bolshakov, V, Bondarchuk, S, Bukharova, E, Butunina, A, Buyvolov, Y, Buyvolova, A, Bykov, Y, Chakhireva, E, Chashchina, O, Cherenkova, N, Chistjakov, S, Chuhontseva, S, Davydov, EA, Demchenko, V, Diadicheva, E, Dobrolyubov, A, Dostoyevskaya, L, Drovnina, S, Drozdova, Z, Dubanaev, A, Dubrovsky, Y, Elsukov, S, Epova, L, Ermakova, O, Ermakova, OS, Ershkova, E, Esengeldenova, A, Evstigneev, O, Fedchenko, I, Fedotova, V, Filatova, T, Gashev, S, Gavrilov, A, Gaydysh, I, Golovcov, D, Goncharova, N, Gorbunova, E, Gordeeva, T, Grishchenko, V, Gromyko, L, Hohryakov, V, Hritankov, A, Ignatenko, E, Igosheva, S, Ivanova, U, Ivanova, N, Kalinkin, Y, Kaygorodova, E, Kazansky, F, Kiseleva, D, Knorre, A, Kolpashikov, L, Korobov, E, Korolyova, H, Korotkikh, N, Kosenkov, G, Kossenko, S, Kotlugalyamova, E, Kozlovsky, E, Kozsheechkin, V, Kozurak, A, Kozyr, I, Krasnopevtseva, A, Kruglikov, S, Kuberskaya, O, Kudryavtsev, A, Kulebyakina, E, Kulsha, Y, Kupriyanova, M, Kurbanbagamaev, M, Kutenkov, A, Kutenkova, N, Kuyantseva, N, Kuznetsov, A, Larin, E, Lebedev, P, Litvinov, K, Luzhkova, N, Mahmudov, A, Makovkina, L, Mamontov, V, Mayorova, S, Megalinskaja, I, Meydus, A, Minin, A, Mitrofanov, O, Motruk, M, Myslenkov, A, Nasonova, N, Nemtseva, N, Nesterova, I, Nezdoliy, T, Niroda, T, Novikova, T, Panicheva, D, Pavlov, A, Pavlova, K, Podolski, S, Polikarpova, N, Polyanskaya, T, Pospelov, I, Pospelova, E, Prokhorov, I, Prokosheva, I, Puchnina, L, Putrashyk, I, Raiskaya, J, Rozhkov, Y, Rozhkova, O, Rudenko, M, Rybnikova, I, Rykova, S, Sahnevich, M, Samoylov, A, Sanko, V, Sapelnikova, I, Sazonov, S, Selyunina, Z, Shalaeva, K, Shashkov, M, Shcherbakov, A, Shevchyk, V, Shubin, S, Shujskaja, E, Sibgatullin, R, Sikkila, N, Sitnikova, E, Sivkov, A, Skok, N, Skorokhodova, S, Smirnova, E, Sokolova, G, Sopin, V, Spasovski, Y, Stepanov, S, Stratiy, V, Strekalovskaya, V, Sukhov, A, Suleymanova, G, Sultangareeva, L, Teleganova, V, Teplov, V, Teplova, V, Tertitsa, T, Timoshkin, V, Tirski, D, Tolmachev, A, Tomilin, A, Tselishcheva, L, Turgunov, M, Tyukh, Y, Van, P, Van, V, Vasin, A, Vasina, A, Vekliuk, A, Vetchinnikova, L, Vinogradov, V, Volodchenkov, N, Voloshina, I, Xoliqov, T, Yablonovska-Grishchenko, E, Yakovlev, V, Yakovleva, M, Yantser, O, Yarema, Y, Zahvatov, A, Zakharov, V, Zelenetskiy, N, Zheltukhin, A, Zubina, T, Kurhinen, J & Ovaskainen, O 2021, 'Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent', Nature Climate Change, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 241-248. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7

TY - JOUR

T1 - Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

AU - Roslin, Tomas

AU - Antão, Laura

AU - Hällfors, Maria

AU - Meyke, Evgeniy

AU - Lo, Coong

AU - Tikhonov, Gleb

AU - Delgado, Maria del Mar

AU - Gurarie, Eliezer

AU - Abadonova, Marina

AU - Abduraimov, Ozodbek

AU - Adrianova, Olga

AU - Akimova, Tatiana

AU - Akkiev, Muzhigit

AU - Ananin, Aleksandr

AU - Andreeva, Elena

AU - Andriychuk, Natalia

AU - Antipin, Maxim

AU - Arzamascev, Konstantin

AU - Babina, Svetlana

AU - Babushkin, Miroslav

AU - Bakin, Oleg

AU - Barabancova, Anna

AU - Basilskaja, Inna

AU - Belova, Nina

AU - Belyaeva, Natalia

AU - Bespalova, Tatjana

AU - Bisikalova, Evgeniya

AU - Bobretsov, Anatoly

AU - Bobrov, Vladimir

AU - Bobrovskyi, Vadim

AU - Bochkareva, Elena

AU - Bogdanov, Gennady

AU - Bolshakov, Vladimir

AU - Bondarchuk, Svetlana

AU - Bukharova, Evgeniya

AU - Butunina, Alena

AU - Buyvolov, Yuri

AU - Buyvolova, Anna

AU - Bykov, Yuri

AU - Chakhireva, Elena

AU - Chashchina, Olga

AU - Cherenkova, Nadezhda

AU - Chistjakov, Sergej

AU - Chuhontseva, Svetlana

AU - Davydov, Evgeniy A.

AU - Demchenko, Viktor

AU - Diadicheva, Elena

AU - Dobrolyubov, Aleksandr

AU - Dostoyevskaya, Ludmila

AU - Drovnina, Svetlana

AU - Drozdova, Zoya

AU - Dubanaev, Akynaly

AU - Dubrovsky, Yuriy

AU - Elsukov, Sergey

AU - Epova, Lidia

AU - Ermakova, Olga

AU - Ermakova, Olga S.

AU - Ershkova, Elena

AU - Esengeldenova, Aleksandra

AU - Evstigneev, Oleg

AU - Fedchenko, Irina

AU - Fedotova, Violetta

AU - Filatova, Tatiana

AU - Gashev, Sergey

AU - Gavrilov, Anatoliy

AU - Gaydysh, Irina

AU - Golovcov, Dmitrij

AU - Goncharova, Nadezhda

AU - Gorbunova, Elena

AU - Gordeeva, Tatyana

AU - Grishchenko, Vitaly

AU - Gromyko, Ludmila

AU - Hohryakov, Vladimir

AU - Hritankov, Alexander

AU - Ignatenko, Elena

AU - Igosheva, Svetlana

AU - Ivanova, Uliya

AU - Ivanova, Natalya

AU - Kalinkin, Yury

AU - Kaygorodova, Evgeniya

AU - Kazansky, Fedor

AU - Kiseleva, Darya

AU - Knorre, Anastasia

AU - Kolpashikov, Leonid

AU - Korobov, Evgenii

AU - Korolyova, Helen

AU - Korotkikh, Natalia

AU - Kosenkov, Gennadiy

AU - Kossenko, Sergey

AU - Kotlugalyamova, Elvira

AU - Kozlovsky, Evgeny

AU - Kozsheechkin, Vladimir

AU - Kozurak, Alla

AU - Kozyr, Irina

AU - Krasnopevtseva, Aleksandra

AU - Kruglikov, Sergey

AU - Kuberskaya, Olga

AU - Kudryavtsev, Aleksey

AU - Kulebyakina, Elena

AU - Kulsha, Yuliia

AU - Kupriyanova, Margarita

AU - Kurbanbagamaev, Murad

AU - Kutenkov, Anatoliy

AU - Kutenkova, Nadezhda

AU - Kuyantseva, Nadezhda

AU - Kuznetsov, Andrey

AU - Larin, Evgeniy

AU - Lebedev, Pavel

AU - Litvinov, Kirill

AU - Luzhkova, Natalia

AU - Mahmudov, Azizbek

AU - Makovkina, Lidiya

AU - Mamontov, Viktor

AU - Mayorova, Svetlana

AU - Megalinskaja, Irina

AU - Meydus, Artur

AU - Minin, Aleksandr

AU - Mitrofanov, Oleg

AU - Motruk, Mykhailo

AU - Myslenkov, Aleksandr

AU - Nasonova, Nina

AU - Nemtseva, Natalia

AU - Nesterova, Irina

AU - Nezdoliy, Tamara

AU - Niroda, Tatyana

AU - Novikova, Tatiana

AU - Panicheva, Darya

AU - Pavlov, Alexey

AU - Pavlova, Klara

AU - Podolski, Sergei

AU - Polikarpova, Natalja

AU - Polyanskaya, Tatiana

AU - Pospelov, Igor

AU - Pospelova, Elena

AU - Prokhorov, Ilya

AU - Prokosheva, Irina

AU - Puchnina, Lyudmila

AU - Putrashyk, Ivan

AU - Raiskaya, Julia

AU - Rozhkov, Yuri

AU - Rozhkova, Olga

AU - Rudenko, Marina

AU - Rybnikova, Irina

AU - Rykova, Svetlana

AU - Sahnevich, Miroslava

AU - Samoylov, Alexander

AU - Sanko, Valeri

AU - Sapelnikova, Inna

AU - Sazonov, Sergei

AU - Selyunina, Zoya

AU - Shalaeva, Ksenia

AU - Shashkov, Maksim

AU - Shcherbakov, Anatoliy

AU - Shevchyk, Vasyl

AU - Shubin, Sergej

AU - Shujskaja, Elena

AU - Sibgatullin, Rustam

AU - Sikkila, Natalia

AU - Sitnikova, Elena

AU - Sivkov, Andrei

AU - Skok, Nataliya

AU - Skorokhodova, Svetlana

AU - Smirnova, Elena

AU - Sokolova, Galina

AU - Sopin, Vladimir

AU - Spasovski, Yurii

AU - Stepanov, Sergei

AU - Stratiy, Vitalіy

AU - Strekalovskaya, Violetta

AU - Sukhov, Alexander

AU - Suleymanova, Guzalya

AU - Sultangareeva, Lilija

AU - Teleganova, Viktorija

AU - Teplov, Viktor

AU - Teplova, Valentina

AU - Tertitsa, Tatiana

AU - Timoshkin, Vladislav

AU - Tirski, Dmitry

AU - Tolmachev, Andrej

AU - Tomilin, Aleksey

AU - Tselishcheva, Ludmila

AU - Turgunov, Mirabdulla

AU - Tyukh, Yurij

AU - Van, Polina

AU - Van, Vladimir

AU - Vasin, Aleksander

AU - Vasina, Aleksandra

AU - Vekliuk, Anatoliy

AU - Vetchinnikova, Lidia

AU - Vinogradov, Vladislav

AU - Volodchenkov, Nikolay

AU - Voloshina, Inna

AU - Xoliqov, Tura

AU - Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Eugenia

AU - Yakovlev, Vladimir

AU - Yakovleva, Marina

AU - Yantser, Oksana

AU - Yarema, Yurij

AU - Zahvatov, Andrey

AU - Zakharov, Valery

AU - Zelenetskiy, Nicolay

AU - Zheltukhin, Anatolii

AU - Zubina, Tatyana

AU - Kurhinen, Juri

AU - Ovaskainen, Otso

PY - 2021/3

Y1 - 2021/3

N2 - Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.

AB - Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85099985103

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7

DO - 10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7

M3 - Article

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 11

SP - 241

EP - 248

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 3

ER -

Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Abstract

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this