Scenarios of world development

This article looks at 16 recent studies of global futures and examines their conclusions within a sociopolitical framework.^† † These studies are referenced in a short bibliography at the end of the article. Three idealised worldviews-conservative, reformist, radical-are constructed from this framework; they are then married with a classification based upon the two parameters of high growth-low growth and equality-inequality. This allows for the concise mapping of existing scenarios and, by the elucidation of the major differences in sociopolitical forecasts, provides a simple but effective technique for comparative analysis. Two quality-of-life issues, the future of work, and of political development and change, are used as concrete examples of how the method can be used to create a series of scenarios which cover the whole socio-political spectrum of alternative futures.