Systematic framework to cyber incident scenario risk analysis

Scenario risk analysis of cyber incidents are often published in the form of natural language narratives in many types of publications, including engineering and technology, management, and economics. Though narrative-form of scenarios may be convenient and effective for informational purposes, describing such complex scenarios as cyber incidents only using natural language presents particular limitations: usability across disciplines, side-by-side comparison among supposedly distinct analysis, and re-usability. This paper describes a systematic framework to model cyber incidents to overcome these particular limitations of narrative descriptions using tools and techniques from systems engineering, risk analysis, and decision analysis. This can be useful for engineering managers who are conducting a multidisciplinary risk analysis of past or future cyber scenarios.