The role of heart rate variability, heart rate turbulence, and deceleration capacity in predicting cause-specific mortality in chronic heart failure

Background: The volume of regional denervated myocardium (D-M) on positron emission tomography has been recently suggested as a strong independent predictor of cause-specific mortality from sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) in chronic heart failure. We sought to evaluate whether ECG indices of global autonomic function predict risk of SCA to a similar degree as regional D-M. Methods: Subjects enrolled in the Prediction of Arrhythmic Events using Positron Emission Tomography (PAREPET) study were included in this study. Patients completed a 24-hour Holter ECG at enrollment and were followed up at 3-month intervals. SCA events were adjudicated by two board-certified cardiologists. Other cardiovascular death events were classified as nonsudden cardiac death (NSCD). Eight measures of heart rate variability were analyzed: SDNN, RMSSD, low-frequency (LF) and high-frequency (HF) power, heart rate turbulence onset and slope, and acceleration and deceleration capacity. We used competing risk regression to delineate cause-specific mortality from SCA versus NSCD. Results: Our sample included 127 patients (age 67 ± 12, 92% male). After a median follow-up of 4.1 years, there were 22 (17%) adjudicated SCA and 18 (14%) adjudicated NSCD events. In multivariate Cox-regression, LF power was the only HRV parameter to predict time-to-SCA. However, in competing risk analysis, reduced LF power was preferentially associated with NSCD rather than SCA (HR = 0.92 [0.85–0.98], p = 0.019). Conclusion: Depressed LF power might indicate impaired vagal reflex, which suggests that increasing vagal tone in these patients would have a protective effect against NSCD beyond that achieved by the mere slowing of heart rate using β-blockers.