The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns

Kajal Lahiri; George J. Wang

doi:10.1080/13504850500425386

The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns

Kajal Lahiri
, George J. Wang

Economics

University at Albany

City University of New York

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

The joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during two consecutive quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated as predictors of cyclical downturns in the economy using the prequential approach of Dawid (1984) and the skill score decomposition of Murphy (1988).

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	11-14
Number of pages	4
Journal	Applied Economics Letters
Volume	14
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500425386
State	Published - Jan 20 2007

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title = "The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns",

abstract = "The joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during two consecutive quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated as predictors of cyclical downturns in the economy using the prequential approach of Dawid (1984) and the skill score decomposition of Murphy (1988).",

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The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns

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