Therapist Perceptions of Their Own Measurement-Based, Problem-Specific Effectiveness

Objective: Patient-reported outcomes data reveal differences both in therapists’ global effectiveness across their average patient (between-therapist effect) and in treating different problems within their caseload (within-therapist effects). Yet, it is unclear how accurately therapists perceive their own measurementbased, problem-specific effectiveness and whether such self-perceptions predict global between-therapist performance differences. We explored these questions in naturalistic psychotherapy. Method: For 50 therapists, we drew on data from a mean of 27 past patients (total N = 1,363) who completed a multidimensional outcome measure—Treatment Outcome Package (TOP)—at pre- and posttreatment. For each of 12 outcome domains (e.g., depression, anxiety), TOP data classified therapists as historically “effective,” “neutral,” or “ineffective.” Unaware of their data-driven classifications, therapists rated their perceived effectiveness for each domain. We conducted chi-square analyses to determine whether therapists predicted their own measurement-based effectiveness classifications to a level greater than chance. We then used multilevel modeling to test whether therapists’ problem-specific perceptions predicted global betweentherapist performance differences. Results: For all but one outcome domain, therapists were no better than chance at predicting their measurement-based effectiveness classification. Additionally, controlling for patient baseline impairment, therapists who consistently overestimated their problem-specific effectiveness had patients who reported worse global outcomes than patients whose therapist more accurately estimated their effectiveness. Conversely, therapists who underestimated their problem-specific effectiveness had patients who reported better outcomes than patients whose therapist over- or accurately estimated their effectiveness. Conclusions: Therapist humility may differentiate the most from least globally effective therapists, and this virtue should be cultivated in clinical trainings.