Verona validation of the DAAE score, a tool for estimating risk of clinical disease progression in people with multiple sclerosis

Background: The DAAE Score is a tool for estimating patient risk of disease progression. We aimed to validate this tool externally. Methods: Data was collected from a clinical cohort treated at the MS Center of Verona. We appraised binary predictions in case-control balanced data using synthetic-minority-oversampling techniques. Results: Included patients (n = 218) had a mean(SD) age and disease duration of 36.8(11.0) and 6.5(6.6). Over 5.2(1.2) years, 53(24.3 %) patients converted to secondary progressive MS. Validation analyses revealed an AUROC=0.948[95 %CI=0.918–0.978], brier-score=1.09, prediction accuracy=89.4 %(95 %CI=85.1 %-94.1 %), sensitivity=0.76(95 %CI=0.69–0.84), and specificity=0.94(95 %CI=0.90–0.99). Conclusion: Within MS Center of Verona, the DAAE Score performs well on external validation.