What’s the problem? Frameworks and methods from policy analysis for analyzing complex problems

The importance of problem structuring–the activity of making sense of problems–has been grasped by many scholars of policy analysis, a profession that shares much in common in form and function with intelligence analysis. This article imports some of the lessons, frameworks and methodologies of problem structuring to intelligence analysis from policy analysis. The concept of a Type III error is introduced, the analytical mistake of misunderstanding a problem, along with several methodologies designed to help analysts structure problems. One such methodology from policy analysis, called boundary analysis, is demonstrated on a national security case, the 2014 Syrian chemical weapons destruction process.